News

Market Update 16th May 2022

News: 16 May 2022

There is though just the outside possibility that everyone is excessively gloomy. The strong majority of companies, in all walks of the economy, that we speak with or listen to are reporting that trading is pretty good. Certain parts of retail are struggling, especially in the UK, but beyond this business activity strikes us as being good.

Market Update 9th May 2022

News: 09 May 2022

So, all else being equal, inflation rates will fall in probably 12 to 18 months’ time. Unfortunately the road from here to there is going to be bumpy. On Wednesday this week, we get to see the latest calculation of US inflation. As is habitual, the ‘consensus’ is that the headline rate will fall, this time from 8.5% to 8.1%.

Market Update 25th April

News: 25 April 2022

Our statement of the obvious is that markets are going to stay volatile. Today is a very red day. There will be better ones. Trying to guess which is which from week to week, or month to month, will almost certainly result in more bad decisions than good ones. It is time to retain focus on how to invest in times of rising prices and we reiterate the merits of patiently holding companies with proven pricing power and high barriers to entry.

Market Update 4th April

News: 05 April 2022

Solving a problem like manifest inflation is a tough one. Central banks will do what they can by moving rates higher, but the cost of refinancing debts means this approach has only limited scope. Corporate innovation should again prove to be an ally.

Market Update 21st March

News: 22 March 2022

More broadly, are ESG (environmental, social and governance) concerns simply going out the window at the current time? Are investors losing interest when there are more pressing concerns elsewhere?

Market Update 14th March

News: 14 March 2022

Central bankers have a very difficult job on their hands. The market has priced in several rate hikes and pressure is mounting to turn to a tightening cycle with inflation running out of hand. But with an ongoing war and fears of slowing down the economy, it feels as if they are trapped between a rock and a hard place.

Market Update 7th March

News: 07 March 2022

The coming days and weeks are going to be uncomfortable. In particular, we are most concerned about how the situation around Kyiv will evolve. Central Banks are likely to tread very softly around their treatment of inflation, with their primary aim now to keep capital markets liquid and open.

Market Update 28th February

News: 28 February 2022

Today is one of those few occasions when reporting on financial markets takes a degree of gravitas beyond the usual daily wheeler-dealering of the trading floors. It is also a reminder that extreme events can and do happen. Of all the possible scenarios that have been building over the early weeks of 2022, a full scale Russian invasion of Ukraine was the least likely. But the Devon Loch of European politics has unfolded in front of our eyes.

Market Update 21st February

News: 21 February 2022

Power, as we have argued before, is the great fragility of the modern world. Having possibly thought that storms and power cuts were things that happened only in the North and Scotland, Eunice’s damage to the Cornish grid was a nasty surprise.

Market Update 14th February

News: 14 February 2022

Given our knowledge of the world’s half-hearted crawl towards carbon net zero, this makes Russia exceedingly important. It becomes doubly exceedingly important when the West is staring at both barrels of generationally high inflation and rising interest rates.